A resurgence of authoritarianism is sweeping the halls of power in the Soviet Union. Formerly it appeared as if the Communist leadership had resigned and dedicated itself towards implementing democratic reforms in order to insure its own survival. The Constitutional Amendment Act of the USSR of March 14, 1990 relinquished the Communist Party's monopoly of power in the Soviet Union and admitted other parties to begin a new multi-party system. However, the primacy of political power has been channeled into Gorbachev's creation of a presidential office with emergency powers.

As president, Gorbachev has slowly stripped away the real authority of the Politburo and other positions within the Communist power structure and concentrated it into his own hands. However, as support for his policies has plummeted, Gorbachev has chosen to preserve his status by aligning with conservative forces in the Communist Party, the military, and the KGB. This imbalance in constitutional authority has created a power vacuum which has enabled these totalitarian elements to reestablish their policies with the tools of repression.

Faced with mounting demands for secession in the Baltics and the economic collapse of the nation, Gorbachev has declared that he will preserve the Soviet Union at all costs. Early this year, KGB chief Vladimir Kryuchkov told the Congress of People's Deputies that the Kremlin no longer felt obliged to rely on political means alone, but to use force even at the risk of bloodshed. Shevardnadze's warning of a "coming dictatorship" was followed by the dismissal of reformists from office, a reimposition of censorship on the broadcast media, and a reliance on new hard-line decrees. Rather than relying on the forces of democracy which he had helped to unleash, Gorbachev shifted, saying, "Our society has. moved to the right."

Failing to adopt a viable economic program which would steer the Soviet Union towards a market economy. Soviet Prime Minister Valentin Pavlov has charged that Western banks have been conspiring to destroy the country's financial system. Joint army-police patrols were authorized in a decree, signed secretly by the Ministers of Defense and the Interior on December 29. These decrees were subsequently endorsed by Gorbachev. The KGB has now been allowed to inspect all domestic and foreign businesses without warrants. The future of newfound civil liberties is at stake. These could be destroyed if the Soviet government uses these new police powers to control the public and political organizations. Moscow Mayor Gavril Popov said that these new patrols could allow the military to take control of any city it deems necessary.

Viewing the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe as a failure of reformist foreign policy, the Soviet military has failed to comply with the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and reneged on parts of an arms control agenda it had formulated with the U.S. through Shevardnadze. However, the conservatives' biggest fear was that the success of secession in the Baltics would encourage independence movements throughout the Soviet Union. The Communist leadership approached this problem by employing methods of violence and repression which it has utilized since its founding.

In early January, crack Soviet troops brought in from eastern Germany stormed the television center and tower on Cosmonaut Avenue in Vilnius, shooting live ammunition at the crowds gathered there. Fifty Lithuanians stood in front of an approaching tank column when a 17-year-old man and 24-year-old woman were crushed under its treads. Shortly afterwards, in Riga, Soviet Black Berets stormed the Latvian Interior Ministry, shooting their way into the building. One of the soldiers blamed the Latvians as he told a Washington Post reporter that "under the cover of a fight for democracy in the Baltics, fascism is reviving." In Vilnius, a curfew was ordered by the Committee of the National Salvation, a secret organization created by the hard-line, Moscow-backed minority wing of the republic's Communist Party; it declared that it had taken control of the republic.

Lithuanian President Landsbergis stated, "We cannot be protected from this, for we possess no military force of our own." Yet, it was the determination of the citizenry of Latvia and Lithuania which guarded their fledgling parliaments and foiled these coup attempts. Although Gorbachev and Defense Minister Dmitri Yazov have insisted that they did not give the orders for the attacks, it is obvious that they must have been well aware of this plans for the crackdown which left 19 people dead and more than 100 people injured. Algirdas Brazauskas, the Lithuanian Communist leader who convinced the majority wing of his party to support the independence movement, believes that "this is about the whole of the Soviet Union. This means dictatorship in the Soviet Union." Lt. Col. Viktor Alksnis, a military leader of the conservative legislative faction Soyuz, said that Gorbachev "didn't have the courage to finish the job in Vilnius."

The growing specter of totalitarianism has been thwarted by the efforts of newly emerging democratic forces within the Soviet Union. Russian President Boris Yeltsin declared war on the resurgent Soviet Communist Party, which he claims is responsible for years of economic failure and dictatorial rule. Yeltsin believes that "this year will be decisive. Either the Communists will strangle the democrats, or we will survive and win." It was during the crackdowns in Lithuania and Latvia that the Russian Republic stood by the Baltic states. Yeltsin went to Tallinn and signed two Joint declarations with representatives from the three Baltic republics. One declaration called for the United Nations to hold an immediate conference on the Baltic crisis. The other condemned the crackdowns in Lithuania and Latvia, pledging mutual assistance to one another in the event of further violence. Yeltsin demanded that Gorbachev withdraw reinforcements sent to the region and guarantee that no further force would be used. He went so far as to distribute leaflets to Russian soldiers, urging them not to follow orders to use force against the Baltic peoples.

The Russian Parliament appealed to Gorbachev to rescind the order for the army to join police patrols in Soviet cities. Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators have come out to protest in cities around the Soviet Union against the shift toward dictatorship. They have Joined thousands of miners on strike who are also demanding that Gorbachev resign. By failing to rely on the middle class and the intelligentsia who initially benefited from his reforms, Gorbachev has now lost their support. Democratic forces are growing and they may stop the reactionary offensive because there is now greater freedom of information, a rise of centers of democracy in major cities and republics, and a greater determination among Soviet people not to be intimidated into returning to life under authoritarian rule.

Yuri Afanasyev, a member of the Supreme Soviet and leader of the national Democratic Russia movement, said that the violence in Lithuania was the "work of a dictatorship of reactionary circles - the generals, the KGB, the military-industrial complex, and the Communist Party chiefs. At the head of this party dictatorship stands the initiator of perestroika, Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev." Other republics are taking matters into their own hands. For example, the Georgian Nationalist Parliament voted to create its own army. Georgian President Gamsakhurdia has said that if they tried a Lithuanian-style crackdown in Georgia, "It would be the Kremlin against the whole population."

What is shaping up in the Soviet Union is the polarization of Soviet society along political lines between those who favor new strides for greater democratizarion of the Soviet Union and those who believe the basic foundations of totalitarian rule must remain. Leonid Batkin, a cultural historian and leader of the group Democratic Russia, believes "Things have reached such a point that civil disobedience, even strikes, are the only ammunition that the democratic forces have." In the past year Gorbachev has demonstrated that he has failed to address three important challenges facing his nation - starting the transition to a market economy, transforming the Soviet Union into a genuine "union of sovereign republics" and allowing for the creation of a system of democracy in the USSR.

The results of the all-Union referendum has sent mixed signals to Soviet leaders. On the one hand, it has confirmed that a large number of citizens and republics are interested in preserving the Soviet Union. Yet, on the other hand a large number of urban areas and the republics seeking independence have rejected this affirmation. Voters in the Russian Republic have overwhelmingly expressed support for the popular election of a Russian presidency on June 12. This post would give Yeltsin the type of support that would ensure him victory over Communist Party hard-liners trying to unseat him as chairman of the Russian Supreme Soviet. Although Gorbachev may use these results to pressure republics to sign an all-Union treaty giving the central government decisive power, a showdown seems quite likely to ensue.

To ensure the economic survival of the Soviet Union, the development of a market economy must take place with the adoption of a convertible ruble. Only then can the Soviet Union join the world economy and attract foreign investors; for "improved" central planning will not revive a morbid economy. Alternative political movements are forming, such as Democratic Russia and the Social Democratic Alliance. Sergei Kovalev, a former political prisoner and now the chairman of the Russian Parliament's Human Rights Committee believes that "Yeltsin and his popular support are going to be vital to any battle for human rights and reform." The Soviet Union must take the following steps to ensure the removal of totalitarianism and to encourage the growth of democratic institutions: the creation of a new constitution which guarantees civil liberties, a system of checks and balances as well as a genuine and equitable separation governmental powers, and the dismantling of the KGB with the subordination of the military to civilian control under the new constitution. These forces must be held accountable for any violations of power. At the same time, the democratic movement must unite to demand the creation of a new system of government to ensure the survival of democracy in the Soviet Union.

Gerard J. Janco, executive director of the U.S. Center for Soviet-American Relations, is a specialist in international security affairs